short1–3 months
SPLIT JURY
Composite-0.24
3 bullish · 3 neutral · 2 bearish
Uncertainty ±0.50 · 8 active
MARKET DOCKET · DAILY CLOSE
Three horizons. Same witnesses. Different relevance. No point predictions.
3 bullish · 3 neutral · 2 bearish
Uncertainty ±0.50 · 8 active
5 bullish · 5 neutral · 2 bearish
Uncertainty ±0.50 · 12 active
1 bullish · 2 neutral · 0 bearish
Uncertainty ±0.18 · 3 active
The bar this evidence must beat: stocks were higher 12 months later in roughly 64% of all months since 1871. A bullish verdict is not a promise.
SPLIT JURY. 5 witnesses support growth, 2 argue for caution, and 5 are not taking a side. The dispersion is 0.50—that disagreement matters.
SEVEN-DAY DOCKET
1 witness changed sides; 1 moved toward growth, 0 moved toward caution, and 12 held steady.
25.617.5
Changed sides · toward growth0.3%0.2%
unchanged0%0%
unchanged195,250195,250
unchanged3.4%3.3%
unchangedPoint-in-time testimony through market breaks and bull runs.
Every reading has a source. Every lean has a rule. Credibility now comes from reproducible historical backtests—with sample size, base rate, and worst miss on the record.
| Witness | Reading | Last 60 observations | Testimony | Credibility |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yield curveleading | 0.2%FRED · Nov 12, 2026 | No clear lean | 57/100backtested | |
| Sahm rulecoincident | 0%FRED · Oct 1, 2026 | Favors growth | 51/100backtested | |
| Jobless claimsleading | 195,250FRED · Nov 7, 2026 | Favors growth | 48/100backtested | |
| Credit stressleading | 3.3%FRED · Nov 11, 2026 | Favors growth | 50/100backtested | |
| VIXsentiment | 17.5FRED · Nov 11, 2026 | No clear lean | 50/100backtested | |
| Financial conditionscoincident | -0.5FRED · Nov 6, 2026 | No clear lean | 56/100backtested | |
| Core inflationtrailing | 2.9%FRED · Oct 1, 2026 | No clear lean | 51/100backtested | |
| Money supplyleading | 5.7%FRED · Sep 1, 2026 | Favors growth | 58/100backtested | |
| Market trendcoincident | 3.9%FRED · Nov 11, 2026 | No clear lean | 47/100backtested | |
| Unemploymenttrailing | -0.3FRED · Oct 1, 2026 | Favors growth | 49/100backtested | |
| Building permitsleading | -3.2%FRED · Sep 1, 2026 | No clear lean | 54/100backtested | |
| Consumer sentimentsentiment | 48.1FRED · Sep 1, 2026 | Favors caution | 47/100backtested | |
| Oil shockleading | 48%FRED · Nov 11, 2026 | Favors caution | 61/100backtested |
Each witness now shows its worst historical call. Daily composite snapshots are next, so Verdict itself can be judged by the same standard as the witnesses.
See what gets measuredEvery new upload now gets a companion case file with the video and the live market evidence beside it.