short1–3 months
SPLIT JURY
Composite-0.01
5 bullish · 1 neutral · 2 bearish
Uncertainty ±0.66 · 8 active
MARKET DOCKET · DAILY CLOSE
Three horizons. Same witnesses. Different relevance. No point predictions.
5 bullish · 1 neutral · 2 bearish
Uncertainty ±0.66 · 8 active
7 bullish · 3 neutral · 2 bearish
Uncertainty ±0.56 · 12 active
1 bullish · 2 neutral · 0 bearish
Uncertainty ±0.18 · 3 active
The bar this evidence must beat: stocks were higher 12 months later in roughly 64% of all months since 1871. A bullish verdict is not a promise.
SPLIT JURY. 7 witnesses support growth, 2 argue for caution, and 3 are not taking a side. The dispersion is 0.56—that disagreement matters.
SEVEN-DAY DOCKET
1 witness changed sides; 0 moved toward growth, 1 moved toward caution, and 12 held steady.
14.517.8
Changed sides · toward caution0.4%0.3%
unchanged-0.1%-0.1%
unchanged206,000206,000
unchanged2.7%2.7%
unchangedPoint-in-time testimony through market breaks and bull runs.
Every reading has a source. Every lean has a rule. Credibility now comes from reproducible historical backtests—with sample size, base rate, and worst miss on the record.
| Witness | Reading | Last 60 observations | Testimony | Credibility |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yield curveleading | 0.3%FRED · Sep 11, 2026 | No clear lean | 57/100backtested | |
| Sahm rulecoincident | -0.1%FRED · Aug 1, 2026 | Favors growth | 51/100backtested | |
| Jobless claimsleading | 206,000FRED · Sep 5, 2026 | Favors growth | 48/100backtested | |
| Credit stressleading | 2.7%FRED · Sep 10, 2026 | Favors growth | 50/100backtested | |
| VIXsentiment | 17.8FRED · Sep 10, 2026 | No clear lean | 50/100backtested | |
| Financial conditionscoincident | -0.6FRED · Sep 4, 2026 | Favors growth | 55/100backtested | |
| Core inflationtrailing | 2.8%FRED · Aug 1, 2026 | No clear lean | 51/100backtested | |
| Money supplyleading | 5.4%FRED · Jul 1, 2026 | Favors growth | 58/100backtested | |
| Market trendcoincident | 6.9%FRED · Sep 11, 2026 | Favors growth | 47/100backtested | |
| Unemploymenttrailing | -0.2FRED · Aug 1, 2026 | Favors growth | 49/100backtested | |
| Building permitsleading | 2.4%FRED · Jul 1, 2026 | No clear lean | 54/100backtested | |
| Consumer sentimentsentiment | 55.2FRED · Jul 1, 2026 | Favors caution | 47/100backtested | |
| Oil shockleading | 52.4%FRED · Sep 9, 2026 | Favors caution | 60/100backtested |
Each witness now shows its worst historical call. Daily composite snapshots are next, so Verdict itself can be judged by the same standard as the witnesses.
See what gets measuredEvery new upload now gets a companion case file with the video and the live market evidence beside it.