short1–3 months
SPLIT JURY
Composite-0.01
3 bullish · 1 neutral · 1 bearish
Uncertainty ±0.69 · 5 active
STRESS TEST · 2022-01-03
The first session of 2022, before rapid tightening repriced markets.
3 bullish · 1 neutral · 1 bearish
Uncertainty ±0.69 · 5 active
2 bullish · 4 neutral · 2 bearish
Uncertainty ±0.51 · 8 active
0 bullish · 2 neutral · 1 bearish
Uncertainty ±0.52 · 3 active
The bar this evidence must beat: stocks were higher 12 months later in roughly 64% of all months since 1871. A bullish verdict is not a promise.
Revision-sensitive readings use the ALFRED vintage published by 2022-01-03. Market-price series without vintages use dated FRED history clipped at the case date. Later observations stay out; missing archives stay visibly unavailable.
These readings and signals are frozen to the historical publication record. Current backtested credibility weights are shown separately from the dated testimony.
The S&P price was 13.4% lower one year later. This outcome is not part of the historical verdict; it is the receipt used to judge it.