Testimony
A sharp oil surge is taxing consumers.
The engine converts this reading to a signal of -0.85 on a scale from −2 to +2. Relevance masks decide which horizons hear this witness; credibility decides how much weight the testimony receives.
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WITNESS STAND · leading
West Texas oil price shock
A sudden oil-price surge acts like a tax on consumers; a crash can also reveal falling demand.
Current reading52.4%As of Sep 9, 2026
CREDIBILITY EXPLORER
The witness’s public track record
Signals use the latest published FRED history; revised economic series may retain revision bias. Market outcomes use the project Shiller monthly S&P series with dividend reinvestment when available.
short · 3m57/100
- Hit rate
- 35.7%
- Base rate
- 74.1%
- Sample
- 126
- Avg. edge
- +1%
Perjury record: On Mar 1, 2009, it leaned toward caution; the S&P returned +23.2% over the next 3 months.
Apr 1, 1987–Jul 1, 2023 · current-vintage FRED historymedium · 12m60/100
- Hit rate
- 34.1%
- Base rate
- 80.5%
- Sample
- 126
- Avg. edge
- +4.5%
Perjury record: On Mar 1, 2009, it leaned toward caution; the S&P returned +55.8% over the next 12 months.
Apr 1, 1987–Jul 1, 2023 · current-vintage FRED historySource receipt
Federal Reserve Economic Data series DCOILWTICO. Retrieved server-side and cached for six hours. No reading is invented when the source fails.
Open the source at FREDAs tried on Cash on Trial
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