WITNESS STAND · leading

West Texas oil price shock

A sudden oil-price surge acts like a tax on consumers; a crash can also reveal falling demand.

Current reading5%As of Jul 6, 2026

Testimony

Oil is not delivering a major growth shock.

The engine converts this reading to a signal of +0.15 on a scale from −2 to +2. Relevance masks decide which horizons hear this witness; credibility decides how much weight the testimony receives.

CREDIBILITY EXPLORER

The witness’s public track record

Signals use the latest published FRED history; revised economic series may retain revision bias. Market outcomes use the project Shiller monthly S&P series with dividend reinvestment when available.

short · 3m57/100

Hit rate: 35.7%
Base rate: 74.1%
Sample: 126
Avg. edge: +1%

Perjury record: On Mar 1, 2009, it leaned toward caution; the S&P returned +23.2% over the next 3 months.

Apr 1, 1987–Jul 1, 2023 · current-vintage FRED history

medium · 12m60/100

Hit rate: 34.1%
Base rate: 80.5%
Sample: 126
Avg. edge: +4.5%

Perjury record: On Mar 1, 2009, it leaned toward caution; the S&P returned +55.8% over the next 12 months.

Apr 1, 1987–Jul 1, 2023 · current-vintage FRED history

Source receipt

Federal Reserve Economic Data series DCOILWTICO. Retrieved server-side and cached for six hours. No reading is invented when the source fails.

Open the source at FRED

As tried on Cash on Trial

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