Testimony
The index remains above its 200-day trend.
The engine converts this reading to a signal of +0.75 on a scale from −2 to +2. Relevance masks decide which horizons hear this witness; credibility decides how much weight the testimony receives.
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WITNESS STAND · coincident
S&P 500 vs. 200-day average
A market above its long trend has broad momentum; below it, sellers still have control.
Current reading8.8%As of Jul 10, 2026
CREDIBILITY EXPLORER
The witness’s public track record
Signals use the latest published FRED history; revised economic series may retain revision bias. Market outcomes use the project Shiller monthly S&P series with dividend reinvestment when available.
short · 3m49/100
- Hit rate
- 62.8%
- Base rate
- 80.7%
- Sample
- 86
- Avg. edge
- -1.5%
Perjury record: On Mar 1, 2020, it leaned toward caution; the S&P returned +17.6% over the next 3 months.
Sep 1, 2016–Feb 1, 2026 · current-vintage FRED historymedium · 12m47/100
- Hit rate
- 60.3%
- Base rate
- 84.8%
- Sample
- 78
- Avg. edge
- -3.9%
Perjury record: On Apr 1, 2020, it leaned toward caution; the S&P returned +52.5% over the next 12 months.
Sep 1, 2016–May 1, 2025 · current-vintage FRED historySource receipt
Federal Reserve Economic Data series SP500. Retrieved server-side and cached for six hours. No reading is invented when the source fails.
Open the source at FREDAs tried on Cash on Trial
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