short1–3 months
SPLIT JURY
Composite+0.14
4 bullish · 0 neutral · 1 bearish
Uncertainty ±0.77 · 5 active
STRESS TEST · 2020-03-16
The day the S&P 500 fell nearly 12% as shutdowns spread.
4 bullish · 0 neutral · 1 bearish
Uncertainty ±0.77 · 5 active
5 bullish · 2 neutral · 1 bearish
Uncertainty ±0.63 · 8 active
0 bullish · 2 neutral · 0 bearish
Uncertainty ±0.23 · 2 active
The bar this evidence must beat: stocks were higher 12 months later in roughly 64% of all months since 1871. A bullish verdict is not a promise.
Revision-sensitive readings use the ALFRED vintage published by 2020-03-16. Market-price series without vintages use dated FRED history clipped at the case date. Later observations stay out; missing archives stay visibly unavailable.
These readings and signals are frozen to the historical publication record. Current backtested credibility weights are shown separately from the dated testimony.
The S&P price was 47.4% higher one year later. This outcome is not part of the historical verdict; it is the receipt used to judge it.