short1–3 months
EVIDENCE LEANS BEARISH
Composite-0.50
0 bullish · 1 neutral · 2 bearish
Uncertainty ±0.25 · 3 active
BULL RUN · 2023-01-03
The first trading session of 2023, before an AI-led advance broadened the bull case.
0 bullish · 1 neutral · 2 bearish
Uncertainty ±0.25 · 3 active
1 bullish · 1 neutral · 2 bearish
Uncertainty ±0.92 · 4 active
1 bullish · 0 neutral · 0 bearish
Uncertainty ±0.00 · 1 active
The bar this evidence must beat: stocks were higher 12 months later in roughly 64% of all months since 1871. A bullish verdict is not a promise.
Revision-sensitive readings use the ALFRED vintage published by 2023-01-03. Market-price series without vintages use dated FRED history clipped at the case date. Later observations stay out; missing archives stay visibly unavailable.
These readings and signals are frozen to the historical publication record. Current backtested credibility weights are shown separately from the dated testimony.
| Witness | Reading | Last 60 observations | Testimony | Credibility |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yield curveleading | -0.6%ALFRED VINTAGE · Jan 3, 2023 | Favors caution | 57/100backtested | |
| Sahm rulecoincident | 0.1%ALFRED VINTAGE · Nov 1, 2022 · STALE | Unavailable | 51/100backtested | |
| Jobless claimsleading | 221,000ALFRED VINTAGE · Dec 24, 2022 | No clear lean | 48/100backtested | |
| Credit stressleading | —WITNESS UNAVAILABLE | No testimony | Unavailable | 50/100backtested |
| VIXsentiment | 22.9ALFRED VINTAGE · Jan 3, 2023 | Favors caution | 50/100backtested | |
| Financial conditionscoincident | -0.2ALFRED VINTAGE · Dec 9, 2022 · STALE | Unavailable | 55/100backtested | |
| Core inflationtrailing | —WITNESS UNAVAILABLE | No testimony | Unavailable | 51/100backtested |
| Money supplyleading | 0%ALFRED VINTAGE · Nov 1, 2022 | Favors growth | 58/100backtested | |
| Market trendcoincident | —WITNESS UNAVAILABLE | No testimony | Unavailable | 47/100backtested |
| Unemploymenttrailing | —WITNESS UNAVAILABLE | No testimony | Unavailable | 49/100backtested |
| Building permitsleading | —WITNESS UNAVAILABLE | No testimony | Unavailable | 54/100backtested |
| Consumer sentimentsentiment | 59.7ALFRED VINTAGE · Dec 1, 2022 | Favors caution | 47/100backtested | |
| Oil shockleading | —WITNESS UNAVAILABLE | No testimony | Unavailable | 60/100backtested |
The S&P price was 21.3% higher one year later. This outcome is not part of the historical verdict; it is the receipt used to judge it.