WITNESS STAND · leading

Initial jobless claims, 4-week average

Layoffs tend to rise before the broad economy looks weak in the headlines.

Current reading218,750As of Jul 4, 2026

Testimony

Claims remain contained by recent-cycle standards.

The engine converts this reading to a signal of +0.50 on a scale from −2 to +2. Relevance masks decide which horizons hear this witness; credibility decides how much weight the testimony receives.

CREDIBILITY EXPLORER

The witness’s public track record

Signals use the latest published FRED history; revised economic series may retain revision bias. Market outcomes use the project Shiller monthly S&P series with dividend reinvestment when available.

short · 3m49/100

Hit rate: 31.8%
Base rate: 71.5%
Sample: 644
Avg. edge: -0.3%

Perjury record: On Aug 1, 1982, it leaned toward caution; the S&P returned +27.5% over the next 3 months.

Feb 1, 1967–Mar 1, 2026 · current-vintage FRED history

medium · 12m48/100

Hit rate: 25.3%
Base rate: 78.3%
Sample: 641
Avg. edge: -1.2%

Perjury record: On Jul 1, 1982, it leaned toward caution; the S&P returned +60.2% over the next 12 months.

Feb 1, 1967–Feb 1, 2025 · current-vintage FRED history

Source receipt

Federal Reserve Economic Data series IC4WSA. Retrieved server-side and cached for six hours. No reading is invented when the source fails.

Open the source at FRED

As tried on Cash on Trial

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