Testimony
Housing plans are stable to expanding.
The engine converts this reading to a signal of 0.00 on a scale from −2 to +2. Relevance masks decide which horizons hear this witness; credibility decides how much weight the testimony receives.
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WITNESS STAND · leading
New private housing permits
Builders pull permits before construction starts, making housing a useful early-cycle witness.
Current reading-0.4%As of May 1, 2026
CREDIBILITY EXPLORER
The witness’s public track record
Signals use the latest published FRED history; revised economic series may retain revision bias. Market outcomes use the project Shiller monthly S&P series with dividend reinvestment when available.
medium · 12m54/100
- Hit rate
- 60.5%
- Base rate
- 78.1%
- Sample
- 570
- Avg. edge
- +0.7%
Perjury record: On Jun 1, 1982, it leaned toward caution; the S&P returned +59.4% over the next 12 months.
Jan 1, 1961–Feb 1, 2025 · current-vintage FRED historylong · 60m50/100
- Hit rate
- 60.1%
- Base rate
- 91%
- Sample
- 542
- Avg. edge
- +1.2%
Perjury record: On Jun 1, 1982, it leaned toward caution; the S&P returned +238% over the next 60 months.
Jan 1, 1961–Jun 1, 2021 · current-vintage FRED historySource receipt
Federal Reserve Economic Data series PERMIT. Retrieved server-side and cached for six hours. No reading is invented when the source fails.
Open the source at FREDAs tried on Cash on Trial
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