WITNESS STAND · leading

M2 money supply

Broad money growth shows whether liquidity is expanding or contracting across the economy.

Current reading5.6%As of May 1, 2026

Testimony

Broad money is expanding at a measured pace.

The engine converts this reading to a signal of +0.45 on a scale from −2 to +2. Relevance masks decide which horizons hear this witness; credibility decides how much weight the testimony receives.

CREDIBILITY EXPLORER

The witness’s public track record

Signals use the latest published FRED history; revised economic series may retain revision bias. Market outcomes use the project Shiller monthly S&P series with dividend reinvestment when available.

medium · 12m58/100

Hit rate: 85.8%
Base rate: 78.5%
Sample: 316
Avg. edge: +1.6%

Perjury record: On Dec 1, 2007, it leaned toward growth; the S&P returned -39.2% over the next 12 months.

Jan 1, 1960–Jun 1, 2025 · current-vintage FRED history

long · 60m49/100

Hit rate: 89.6%
Base rate: 90.9%
Sample: 279
Avg. edge: +7%

Perjury record: On Mar 1, 2004, it leaned toward growth; the S&P returned -25.7% over the next 60 months.

Jan 1, 1960–Sep 1, 2019 · current-vintage FRED history

Source receipt

Federal Reserve Economic Data series M2SL. Retrieved server-side and cached for six hours. No reading is invented when the source fails.

Open the source at FRED

As tried on Cash on Trial

Case-file videos will attach to this witness as each claim is tested on the channel. Until then, the source and scoring rule remain fully visible here.

Watch Cash on Trial