WITNESS STAND · leading

10Y–2Y Treasury curve

When short rates outrun long rates, the bond market is warning that tight money may bite later.

Current reading0.3%As of Jul 10, 2026

Testimony

The curve is positively sloped and is not signaling acute stress.

The engine converts this reading to a signal of 0.00 on a scale from −2 to +2. Relevance masks decide which horizons hear this witness; credibility decides how much weight the testimony receives.

CREDIBILITY EXPLORER

The witness’s public track record

Signals use the latest published FRED history; revised economic series may retain revision bias. Market outcomes use the project Shiller monthly S&P series with dividend reinvestment when available.

medium · 12m57/100

Hit rate: 60.1%
Base rate: 80.7%
Sample: 434
Avg. edge: +1%

Perjury record: On Jul 1, 1982, it leaned toward caution; the S&P returned +60.2% over the next 12 months.

Aug 1, 1976–Jun 1, 2025 · current-vintage FRED history

Source receipt

Federal Reserve Economic Data series T10Y2Y. Retrieved server-side and cached for six hours. No reading is invented when the source fails.

Open the source at FRED

As tried on Cash on Trial

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