short1–3 months
WITNESSES UNAVAILABLE
Composite—
0 bullish · 0 neutral · 0 bearish
Uncertainty ±— · 0 active
BULL RUN · 1995-01-03
The first session of 1995, before easing rates and strong earnings drove a broad advance.
0 bullish · 0 neutral · 0 bearish
Uncertainty ±— · 0 active
1 bullish · 0 neutral · 0 bearish
Uncertainty ±0.00 · 1 active
1 bullish · 0 neutral · 0 bearish
Uncertainty ±0.00 · 1 active
The bar this evidence must beat: stocks were higher 12 months later in roughly 64% of all months since 1871. A bullish verdict is not a promise.
Revision-sensitive readings use the ALFRED vintage published by 1995-01-03. Market-price series without vintages use dated FRED history clipped at the case date. Later observations stay out; missing archives stay visibly unavailable.
These readings and signals are frozen to the historical publication record. Current backtested credibility weights are shown separately from the dated testimony.
| Witness | Reading | Last 60 observations | Testimony | Credibility |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yield curveleading | —WITNESS UNAVAILABLE | No testimony | Unavailable | 57/100backtested |
| Sahm rulecoincident | —WITNESS UNAVAILABLE | No testimony | Unavailable | 51/100backtested |
| Jobless claimsleading | —WITNESS UNAVAILABLE | No testimony | Unavailable | 48/100backtested |
| Credit stressleading | —WITNESS UNAVAILABLE | No testimony | Unavailable | 50/100backtested |
| VIXsentiment | —WITNESS UNAVAILABLE | No testimony | Unavailable | 50/100backtested |
| Financial conditionscoincident | —WITNESS UNAVAILABLE | No testimony | Unavailable | 55/100backtested |
| Core inflationtrailing | —WITNESS UNAVAILABLE | No testimony | Unavailable | 51/100backtested |
| Money supplyleading | 0.9%ALFRED VINTAGE · Nov 1, 1994 | Favors growth | 58/100backtested | |
| Market trendcoincident | —WITNESS UNAVAILABLE | No testimony | Unavailable | 47/100backtested |
| Unemploymenttrailing | -0.9ALFRED VINTAGE · Nov 1, 1994 · STALE | Unavailable | 49/100backtested | |
| Building permitsleading | —WITNESS UNAVAILABLE | No testimony | Unavailable | 54/100backtested |
| Consumer sentimentsentiment | —WITNESS UNAVAILABLE | No testimony | Unavailable | 47/100backtested |
| Oil shockleading | —WITNESS UNAVAILABLE | No testimony | Unavailable | 60/100backtested |
The S&P price was 32.1% higher one year later. This outcome is not part of the historical verdict; it is the receipt used to judge it.