6 bullish · 1 neutral · 1 bearish
Uncertainty ±0.31 · 8 active
CASH ON TRIAL · VIDEO CASE FILE
⚖️ Live market verdict — every indicator on the stand: https://cashontrial.com "Print money and prices go up." It's one of the oldest ideas in economics — Weimar, Zimbabwe, wheelbarrows of cash. So we put it on the stand. From 2008 to 2015, the Federal Reserve created about $3.5 trillion through quantitative easing — its balance sheet went from under $1 trillion to $4.5 trillion. If printing money automatically caused inflation, that should have been catastrophic. Instead, inflation averaged about 1.7%, and even turned negative in 2015. For a decade, the claim looked dead. Then 2020 flipped it. This time the money went straight to households — stimulus checks, business loans — and the money supply grew almost 27% in a single year, the fastest on record. Spent into a supply-shocked economy, it produced ~9% inflation, the worst in 40 years. And the twist that settles it: in 2022–23 the money supply actually contracted for the first time since the 1930s — and inflation fell. The verdict: money growth is a suspect, not always the culprit. What decides the outcome is velocity, delivery (whether the money reaches people), and supply. Chapters: 0:00 The charge: printing money = inflation 0:24 The claim at its strongest 0:38 The defense: 2008 QE, $3.5 trillion 1:04 Trillions printed — inflation stayed flat 1:29 Why: the money sat still (velocity) 1:58 The prosecution: 2020, money to people 2:23 The money moved 2:37 9% — worst in 40 years 2:47 The twist: the money supply fell 3:09 2009 sat still vs 2020 ran 3:28 Honest about the limits 3:56 The verdict Data: FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis) — M2SL, CPIAUCSL, WALCL, M2V. Image credits: Weimar 1923 — Bundesarchiv, Bild 102-00104 / Georg Pahl / CC BY-SA 3.0. Empty shelves, Mar 2020 — Maksym Kozlenko / CC BY-SA 4.0. Currency printing (Bureau of Engraving & Printing) — Frances Benjamin Johnston / Library of Congress (public domain). 1931 bank run — U.S. National Archives (public domain). Stimulus graphic — The White House (public domain). Educational content only. This is not financial advice and not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research. #inflation #moneyprinting #federalreserve #economy #investing #moneysupply
LIVE COMPANION · CHECKED JUL 12, 11:35 AM PDT
The video is the argument. This live panel is today’s independent rules-based evidence, so it may differ from the conditions discussed when the episode was published.
6 bullish · 1 neutral · 1 bearish
Uncertainty ±0.31 · 8 active
7 bullish · 4 neutral · 1 bearish
Uncertainty ±0.28 · 12 active
1 bullish · 2 neutral · 0 bearish
Uncertainty ±0.18 · 3 active
The bar this evidence must beat: stocks were higher 12 months later in roughly 64% of all months since 1871. A bullish verdict is not a promise.