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Evidence This Week Time Machine Methodology YouTube Cross-examine

VERDICT

The evidence gets a hearing. So do the misses.

This Week Video Case Files Time Machine Methodology Disclosures Pricing

Meet Harry — Cash on Trial · Case File · VERDICT

All video case files

CASH ON TRIAL · VIDEO CASE FILE

Meet Harry — Cash on Trial

Published Jul 11, 2:22 PM PDT

I'm Harry — Silicon Valley tech, finance, and real estate, and decades investing through bubbles and busts. On Cash on Trial, we put the market's favorite claims on the stand: one indicator, real data, a verdict. New trials weekly. Subscribe. Educational only — not financial advice.

LIVE COMPANION · CHECKED JUL 12, 11:35 AM PDT

What the evidence says now

The video is the argument. This live panel is today’s independent rules-based evidence, so it may differ from the conditions discussed when the episode was published.

short1–3 months

EVIDENCE LEANS BULLISH

Composite+0.37

6 bullish · 1 neutral · 1 bearish

Uncertainty ±0.31 · 8 active

medium6–18 months

SPLIT JURY

Composite+0.25

7 bullish · 4 neutral · 1 bearish

Uncertainty ±0.28 · 12 active

long3–10 years

SPLIT JURY

Composite+0.23

1 bullish · 2 neutral · 0 bearish

Uncertainty ±0.18 · 3 active

The bar this evidence must beat: stocks were higher 12 months later in roughly 64% of all months since 1871. A bullish verdict is not a promise.

What changed this weekSee which witnesses moved or changed sides.

Cross-examine every witnessOpen the readings, rules, sources, and track records.